Projecting Texans QB C.J. Stroud’s potential contract extension Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence just signed a five-year contract for $275 million, with $200 million guaranteed.
The contract tied Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow’s extension for the second-highest overall value, following only Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes’ 10-year, $450 million deal. Since the two-time league MVP signed to his record-breaking contract, the average annual wage for top-tier quarterbacks has risen by 22%.
With Lawrence locked up, the market price shifts again before the 2024 season. As more quarterbacks negotiate future contracts, attention shifts to the Houston Texans and a potential long-term contract for Offensive Rookie of the Year C.J. Stroud.
A agreement is not imminent. Stroud still has three years on his rookie deal, plus a fifth-year option that may be exercised following the 2025 season. The financial commitment makes Stroud one of the league’s top bargains, which is why Houston has aggressively upgraded to maximize its Super Bowl window as the DeMeco Ryans approach Year 2.
However, if Stroud simply builds on one of the best rookie seasons in league history, Houston will be forced to make him one of the league’s highest-paid quarterbacks.
But, given the market value, how much will that contract be worth in terms of yearly income and guarantees?
This experiment only looks at players signing second contracts, therefore Dak Presscot’s potential (clears throat) $60 million yearly compensation was examined but not included. Overall, nine quarterbacks’ second contracts were used. Green Bay’s one-year agreement with Jordan Love was also removed since it was primarily intended to prevent selecting the fifth-year option on a first-year starter.
The players are:
Patrick Mahomes (2020); Dak Prescott (2021).
Joshua Allen (2021) Kyler Murray (2022)
Justin Herbert (2023), Lamar Jackson (2023), Jalen Hurts (2023), and Joe Burrow (2023).
Trevor Lawrence (2024
The previously indicated per-year cost rise is due to the increased salary cap total, which saw the largest single-season increase since 1994, adding $30.6 million to the team’s pocket this summer.
The NFL’s pay cap will grow as it explores new revenue streams, including as a two-game Christmas broadcast pact with Netflix.
So, despite the annual cost is growing, the percentage against a team’s wage cap at the signing has not increased considerably. For example, Burrow and Lawrence’s contracts are essentially similar, with the exception that Burrow is guaranteed $19 million more; nonetheless, Burrow’s proportion of the Bengals’ cap space was 24.47% at the signing, while Lawrence’s was 21.93%.
When Deshaun Watson signed a five-year, $230 million fully guaranteed contract with the Browns in 2022, the market shifted dramatically as additional quarterbacks sought greater guaranteed totals. Mahomes’ deal in 2020 had a guaranteed money rate of 31.4%, whereas Allen’s six-year, $258 million contract the following year had 58.1% guaranteed money.
Since Watson’s signing, no quarterback has signed a second contract with a guaranteed money percentage lower than 69%. Murray, who joined the same year, had the lowest score at 69.3%. Herbert’s 2023 five-year contract, at $262.5 million, topped at 83.3%.
The average percentage of guaranteed money among the six quarterbacks signed after Watson is 74.1%.
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