Northern Lights Forecast Upgraded To ‘Severe’ For Half Of The U.S. — When To See Aurora This Week

Are you ready for more views of the northern lights? Unlike recent forecasts for possible, potential and probably faint displays of aurora, here comes one to take special notice of — a “severe” geomagnetic storm.

Space weather experts at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have published a forecast for a G4 (Severe) geomagnetic storm for Thursday, Oct. 10 and Friday, Oct. 11.

U.S. States Where The Northern Lights May Be Visible

“The aurora may become visible over much of the northern half of the country, and maybe as far as Alabama and northern California,” reads the northern lights alert. That’s exactly what the agency said prior to May 10’s sudden “solar superstorm,” the strongest display of aurora possibly for hundreds of years, which turned out in practice to be a G5 (Extreme) geomagnetic storm.

It’s relatively rare for a G4 geomagnetic storm to be forecast, so it will be wise to prepare for a big show — though, as well as being a stronger G5 it could also turn out to be a weaker G3. Here’s how the scale works, according to NOAA:

• G2 (Minor) storms are generally seen as far south as New York and Idaho.
• G3 (Moderate) storms can generally be seen as far south as Illinois and Oregon.
• G4 (Severe) storms can generally be seen as far south as Alabama and northern California.
• G5 (Extreme) storms can generally be seen as far south as Florida and southern Texas.

How To See The Northern Lights

Try to escape the city and observe the northern lights in rural areas, but make sure the weather is clear first. Light pollution can make the northern lights difficult to see. You will be unable to see anything if there are clouds.

The finest places are those that seem black on a map of light pollution, ideally away from a major metropolis to the north. International Dark Sky Places, which include numerous State Parks and U.S. National Parks, are great destinations.

How To Photograph The Northern Lights

It’s possible that you may have only photographic aurora, which requires a smartphone or a camera to see. Here’s what to do with your smartphone to check if there are any faint auroras around.

• Engage “Night Mode,” which will be good enough to get a more impressive souvenir shot of the aurora. It likely means a long exposure of between five and 10 seconds, which makes the next three steps essential.
• Use your primary lens, NOT the super-wide lens (which is inferior).
• Use a basic smartphone holder and a small tripod to prevent any camera shake, keeping your images sharp.
• Shoot in raw, making it easier to improve your photos using simple edits.

What Is Causing The Northern Lights This Week

The cause is a coronal mass ejection — a stream of charged particles from the sun — that erupted from the sun late on Oct. 8 and is traveling quickly in the direction of Earth. It’s likely to arrive on Oct. 10 after speeding through space at 1,200-1.300 km/s, according to NOAA. “There is potential to reach G4 (Severe) upon arrival of this CME and throughout its passage,” states NOAA.

However, there is always uncertainty about a prediction of displays of the aurora, as NOAA notes: “We won’t know the characteristics of the CME until it arrives 1 million miles from Earth and its speed and magnetic intensity are measured by the DSCOVR and ACE satellites.”

For the latest updates, check NOAA’s aurora view line, NOAA’s 30-minute forecast and its X account, where the latest updates are posted.

‘Solar Maximum’ News

Two solar flares detonated on October 9 on either side of the NOAA-issued signal for a G4 geomagnetic storm. At 01:56 UTC, there was an X-class X1.8 flare; at 15:47 UTC, there was an X1.4 flare. Satellites circling the Earth, such as NASA’s SOHO Observatory, picked them up.

When the sun is nearing “solar maximum,” the apex of its 11-year cycle, and near equinox, when Earth’s axis is oriented sideways toward the sun, geomagnetic activity tends to peak. At this moment, both of those requirements are satisfied.

Although on Tuesday, October 8, NASA and NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center announced that a media teleconference will be held at 2 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, October 15, to discuss the sun’s activity and the progression of Solar Cycle 25, the latest forecast from SWPC is for the sun to reach solar maximum between August 2024 and January 2025.

In any case, through 2026, there will probably still be a lot of solar flares and CMEs along with regular, strong geomagnetic storms.

Wishing you clear skies and wide eyes.