The Would Be Star
Breece Hall
The Jets appeared to have a rising star in their backfield less than three years ago. The offensive engine during a four-game winning streak was rookie Breece Hall. Hall ran 59 times for 351 yards and four touchdowns during those four games. If extrapolated over a complete 17-game season, there would be a 1,492-yard pace and a 5.9-yard average per carry. Hall also contributed six catches for 117 yards, which translated into a pace of 497 yards over 17 games.
Naturally, it made sense to think that such statistics would decrease. In the long run, no running back in the NFL can average six yards per rush. (In college, perhaps, but not in the professional ranks.) Even so, a back who puts up 2,000 yards from scrimmage pace for an entire month is showing signs of being something extraordinary. Zach Wilson just eclipsed 210 throwing yards in one of the Jets’ four victories. To win, they didn’t require a passing game. That was Hall’s level of dominance.
Unfortunately, Hall tore his ACL in the last game of that period. Less than halfway through a season that appeared to be headed for a Rookie of the Year Award, it was cut short. The Jets’ expectations for that season were similar in many respects. After Breece’s injury, the squad managed to salvage a few victories, but the offensive flaws, especially at quarterback, were too great to overcome. The club finished the season with six straight losses and failed to go on another winning streak.
Hall has displayed bursts of explosiveness after his injury, but he hasn’t quite relived the magic of 2022.
In many ways, the Jets’ 2023 season was a complete disaster. One shining spot was Hall. He came within six rushing yards of 1,000 on a strong 4.5 average, even though his offensive line was made up of a rotating cast of untalented individuals. Additionally, he displayed explosiveness, breaking seven runs for more than 20 yards, which tied him for sixth place in the league. He tied for second place in the NFL with three touchdown runs of 20 yards or more.
Nevertheless, there was inconsistency. Hall’s success rate fell to 39.5% in 2023 after he recorded a league-average 50% success rate (the proportion of runs that result in an offensive victory) in 2022. You might argue that the offensive line played a part in that, to be sure.
Then 2024 arrived. Hall had a dreadful start. Hall only averaged 3 yards per rush on 65 carries during the season’s first five games.
I now think that people’s perceptions of the NFL are influenced by their initial impressions. Many Jets fans were critical of Hall following his subpar first month and a quarter in 2024. He was urged to give up carries to Braelon Allen.
After that, everything changed. Hall quietly averaged a strong 4.7 yards per run during his final 11 games. Over the course of a 17-game season, his output during that time would total 1,500 scrimmage yards.
These things were all kind of overlooked. He not only had a great average but also showed consistency from play to play. He outperformed the league average with a 51% success rate during those final eleven games. Hall found something in Week 6 and quietly put together a fantastic season finale.
But there was one thing lacking. Hall became less capable of making breakaway runs. He only had three rushes of 20 yards or more in 2024, compared to seven in 2023. In 2022, he had 80 carries in just 7 games during his incredible rookie season, and he had 3 alone.
Why was this happening? The fact that Hall was playing with injury is one explanation.
When a player discloses an injury after the event, I’m usually a little skeptical. It’s usually a handy justification. But in this instance, it would make sense. Aside from hitting the home run, Hall was playing well in every aspect of the game. If he could create but didn’t have the additional equipment to steal monster gains, it would make some sense.
In a game against the Colts in November, Hall sustained that knee injury. Prior to that game, he had three significant runs.
A crucial season in Breece Hall’s career is set up by all of this. We still don’t know exactly who he is after three years with the Jets.
Is he the kind of man who can dominate for periods of time but lacks the consistency to maintain it over time? He wouldn’t be the first player like that. It’s true that he occasionally hits holes with too much hesitation due to his erratic block reads.
The man we witnessed dominating in early 2022, however, might also be the genuine Breece Hall. Perhaps in 2023, poor blocking prevented him from being reliable. However, he was able to break off monster runs that year when the play was well blocked. Perhaps 2024’s first month was just a downturn. The actual Breece Hall was what came next. He couldn’t break off large runs because of the ailment alone.
Only time will tell which of the two is the real story. Just know this. If Hall breaks out in 2025, the signs were always there.
The Sophomore Understudies
Braelon Allen
Isaiah Davis
On the last day of the 2024 NFL Draft, the Jets made the unprecedented move of selecting both running backs, Isaiah Davis and Braelon Allen.
The Jets’ new head coach Aaron Glenn has proposed using Hall, Allen, and Davis in a three-man backfield rotation. The Jets will probably begin the season in this manner. I’m not entirely sure that’s the strategy they’ll use all year. Since there are only so many carries available, it makes sense that the three backs won’t all contribute equally.
There is a lot of reasoning behind splitting carries early. A three-headed rotation can ensure that no one is worn down in the opening stage of the lengthy season. The top backs should, however, eventually receive a larger portion of the duty.
Hall will probably become the best player in the backfield and eventually shoulder the majority of the carries. Most likely, there won’t be enough left over for one person to get a significant amount of work. I predict that the early part of the season will resemble a protracted training camp competition for the position of number two back.
In many respects, Braelon Allen’s 2024 season was the opposite of Hall’s. For the first month, the youngster appeared to be a genuine number one NFL back. He never really recovered after that, running for just 13 yards on 5 carries in Week 5 against the Minnesota Vikings in London.
Leave a Reply